The Braves had a payroll of ~$205 million in 2023. That was up from ~$187 in 2022. There’s no reason to think it would go down, and it should go up at least $10-15 million considering the success of the team and fan support.
Salaries that are going up…..
- Austin Riley: from $15M to $21M
- Matt Olson: from $21M to $22M
- Sean Murphy: from $4M to $9M
- Max Fried: from $13.5M to projected $14.4M in final year of arbitration
- A.J. Minter: from $4.29M to projected $6.5M in final year of arbitration
- Others in arbitration: Kyle Wright, Michael Soroka, Yonny Chirinos, Nick Anderson, Nicky Lopez, Huascar Ynoa, Michael Tonkin, Sam Hilliard, Ben Heller, Kolby Allard: total among all these players combined projected to be ~$4M
That’s about $19 million the payroll is already going up. Some of those players may be non-tendered which could make a big difference. For example, if Soroka was not offered a contract it would take $3M off that number. But other than him and Nicky Lopez ($3.9M), all the other guys are really cheap even in arbitration.
Money coming off the books….
- Collin McHugh: $5M
- Kirby Yates: $6M
- Kevin Pillar: $3M
- Joe Jimenez: $2.77M
- Charlie Morton: $20M
- Eddie Rosario: $9M
In total, that’s $45.77 million coming off the books. Which means the net would be ~$26 million subtracted from 2023’s $205 million payroll as we sit in mid-October.
A few days after the World Series ends, the Braves will have to decide on some options for four of those six players: McHugh ($6M), Yates ($5.75), Morton ($20M), Rosario ($9M). I would imagine they will let Pillar and Jimenez walk as free agents even though they both did pretty well in their only season as a Brave. I don’t see them picking both McHugh and Yates, but they may pick one of them – since Yates had the better season I’ll say him. I think they’ll definitely bring back Rosario, and Morton will be dependent on whether or not he wants to retire.
McHugh has a $1M buyout + Yates & Rosario = $15.75M added back to the payroll. So that brings us to bring ~$10 million under the 2023 payroll. If Morton comes back, that would mean it’s ~$10 million over the 2023 payroll.
So, there’s not too much wiggle room, but the Braves don’t really need much. Maybe the Braves can look for a free agent to add to the bullpen, resign Jimenez or go with the young arms they have. There’s no real need to sign a free agent to replace Pillar off the bench considering what the Braves already have in the organization.
Whether or not Charlie Morton returns will be the main talking point of the off-season. For one, if he retires then the Braves will have $20 million to work with in trying to find a new starting pitcher. Secondly, they will be missing a big spot in the rotation – one that was obvious when Morton was hurt during the postseason.
Typically, the Braves operate more in trades than free agent signings. Who could be on the trading block? My guess would be either Marcell Ozuna or Vaughn Grissom.
Ozuna is set to make $18M next year, and he has an option for 2025. That would clear up a lot of money on the books to acquire a high-priced starting pitcher. Considering how good the Braves offense is, do they absolutely need Ozuna? Of course, offense was the problem in the playoffs. If they are going to trade Ozuna, now is the time to sell high after he hit 40 homers and had 100 RBI.
If Ozuna were to leave, Vaughn Grissom would be a great candidate to fill the DH role. Considering his offensive prowess and defensive struggles, he would be a really cheap option there.
But if there’s a low payroll team with a good pitcher the Braves want, that team will be after Grissom as he is still two more years away from arbitration. So he has a lot of value there.
If I had my pick, I would love to see Morton back, and I’d trade Ozuna for something – even if it’s just a good bullpen arm. I’d like to see Grissom play, and you could use the money saved from Ozuna’s salary to sign more bullpen arms…..or a starting pitcher if Morton does not come back.
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