Atlanta Braves starting pitching depth

/ Josh Barnhill

Lost in the massive offensive numbers the Braves have put up in 2023 is the amount of starting pitching depth they have assembled. Since Max Fried missed half the year with injury and Kyle Wright close to all of it, the Braves have had a revolving door of prospects get some experience at the big league level and the future is bright.

2023 rotation

  1. Max Fried
  2. Spencer Strider
  3. Charlie Morton
  4. Bryce Elder
  5. Kyle Wright

Depth: Jared Shuster (11 starts), Dylan Dodd (7 starts), Michael Soroka (6 starts), Allan Winans (6 starts), Yonny Chirinos (5 starts), A.J. Smith-Shawver (5 starts), Kolby Allard (3 starts), , Darius Vines (2 starts)

The Braves can bring all of these pitchers back for 2024. The only question is whether or not Charlie Morton wants to retire or pitch at age 40.

2024 rotation

  1. Max Fried
  2. Spencer Strider
  3. ___________?
  4. Charlie Morton
  5. Bryce Elder

Depth: Dylan Dodd (LHP), A.J. Smith-Shawver (RHP), Kolby Allard (LHP), Allan Winans (RHP), Darius Vines (RHP), (Kyle Wright & Ian Anderson are hurt).

Prospects: Hurston Waldrep (RHP), Owen Murphy (RHP), Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP)

The 2025 should have more turnover. I’ll assume by then Charlie Morton has retired and Max Fried has left via free agency.

2025 rotation

  1. Spencer Strider
  2. Kyle Wright
  3. Ian Anderson
  4. Bryce Elder
  5. A.J. Smith Shawver

Depth: Dylan Dodd (LHP), Allan Winans (RHP), Darius Vines (RHP), Hurston Waldrep (RHP), Owen Murphy (RHP), Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP)

2026 rotation

  1. Spencer Strider
  2. Kyle Wright
  3. Ian Anderson
  4. Bryce Elder
  5. A.J. Smith-Shawver

Depth: Hurston Waldrep (RHP), Owen Murphy (RHP), Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP)

For 2027, I’ll assume Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson have left via free agency.

2027 rotation

  1. Spencer Strider
  2. Hurston Waldrep
  3. Bryce Elder
  4. A.J. Smith-Shawver
  5. Spencer Schwellenbach

Depth: Owen Murphy (RHP)

2028 would be Bryce Elder’s final year of arbitration and Strider’s final contract year (although he has an option for 2029).

2028 rotation

  1. Spencer Strider
  2. Bryce Elder
  3. A.J. Smith-Shawver
  4. Hurston Waldrep
  5. Spencer Schwellenbach

That’s five years into the future and making several assumptions that will definitely not happen: no trades, free agent signings, extensions, and who knows which of these pitchers will work out?

What’s more, several of the pitchers listed may make their mark in the bullpen. It seems unlikely they will remain as starters for years on end in AAA and making spot starts. They will likely transition to the bullpen or be traded.

The Braves have depleted their farm system because their once great minor league players are now the reason the big league club is so good. But that’s really more for position players – there is still depth at pitcher because they are pretty draft heavy on pitchers. Perhaps the philosophy is that they are more likely to sign free agent position players than pitchers? Or that the core group is predominantly position players so the need is at pitcher?

It seems like the Braves are set up to have a good starting rotation for years to come, and on the cheap end. If they stick mostly to this group of homegrown talent and not add higher priced veterans, they will only really be paying for Spencer Strider plus some arbitration salaries. Seems like the pitching staff is pretty set up for years to come similar to the core of position players the Braves have.

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